Posted by
Jay Noble on Wednesday, November 08, 2006 4:00:38 PM
First, let’s disabuse ourselves of the idea that the Republicans are a sure thing to regain Congress in 2008. Democrats thought the same thing in the period after 1994 and it took an unpopular war and multiple missteps by the Republicans to hand the majority back to the Democrats this year. Incumbents are very difficult to dislodge and Democrat incumbents will spend the next two years doing everything necessary to secure their seats for 2008.
In addition, now that they will be in power, Democrats are certain to liberalize voter registration and voting laws to allow virtually any warm or dead body to vote without challenge. Being masters of voter fraud, they will expand the pool of potential voters to facilitate their machinations on election day. Many of the House districts which traded parties this election are closely divided and rest assured the Democrats will manufacture as many new votes as possible to hang on to their gains.
Second, the results of this election confirm the perception held by Bin Laden and the jihadists that the American people lack the stamina to wage an extended military conflict. I happen to believe the jury is still out on that question, but Bin Laden has voiced this opinion and yesterday’s results will provide support to that view. What can no longer be disputed is that the American people have no stomach for a military conflict which lacks firm parameters to define victory or which they believe is not being waged to military victory. Just as was the case with the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the public will not support continuing conflict for amorphous, ill-defined objectives, or for "nation-building." This position has its positive aspects, since it basically limits the freedom of action of a president to engage in foreign policy adventures involving the military; on the negative side, and particularly as regards this conflict with the jihadists, our adversaries recognize that if the United States does not initially employ overwhelming force and win a knockout victory in short order, then all the enemy must do is outlast us to prevail. As the Bush Administration did not commit overwhelming force to conquer Iraq and destroy the insurgents there, do not expect it to change course and do so now. Rather, it is now probable that the Bush Administration will soon adopt the Aiken strategy on Iraq: declare victory and promulgate a new approach, perhaps involving a partition of the country, which will lead to our rapid "redeployment" outside Iraq. In other words, "cut and run."
Third, the conservative position that persons illegally in this country should not be rewarded for their crime is now dead as a doornail. President Bush, who on this issue is as bad as any liberal could be, will now team with the Democrats to essentially legalize millions of illegal aliens in this country and pave the way for an influx of millions more. Of course, as many as possible will be registered to vote.
Fourth, the chance to build a majority on the U.S. Supreme Court who will adhere to the text and history of the U.S. Constitution is gone for now. A Democrat Senate will never confirm a bona fide conservative to the Court and the Bush Administration will not nominate or fight for one. Look out for another Anthony Kennedy or David Souter.
Fifth, as this is being written it is announced that Donald Rumsfeld is out as Secretary of Defense. Of course the explanation is that this change had been in the offing before yesterday’s elections, but it is a bad omen and reflective that the Bush Administration intends to move leftward and position itself more in the mode of the administration of the first President Bush. Such a turn, together with the sellout on illegal immigration, will rupture the Republican party by driving principled conservatives from the party.
The only bright spot in this tableau is that liberals and Democrats being who they are, they can only restraint themselves for so long until they overreach. Only time will tell what will trigger the reaction, but it is sure to happen. They won’t be able to help themselves.